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Devon Red

7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 87

Newton Abbot · Edmundson Electrical CableTec Plymouth Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 122y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Little impact in points in 2023/24. Modest form when runner-up in 4-runner novice here last month (17f) flattered by proximity to eased-down winner and he didn't seem to fully see it out when fourth over C&D on handicap debut 11 days ago. Cheekpieces on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Worcester 22/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 2m Gd 15822/0744 @ Newton Abbot 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 2m167y Goo 15422/0845 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 88 · 2m5f122y Gd 166 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 88 par7/095OR 88projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Newton Abbot54th5th−1
2026-08-22Newton Abbot42nd2nd0
2026-07-22Worcester44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0722/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -43.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/07/20264th66/10%63%+0.63
22/08/20262nd11/271%67%-0.04
07/09/20264th10/382%57%-0.25