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5

Pappano

5yo Gelding · 11-4

Newton Abbot · Edmundson Electrical CableTec Plymouth Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 122y

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful on the Flat, signing off for John & Thady Gosden with a very good third in listed race at Ascot in October 2024. Pitched into the Triumph the following spring for hurdling debut (found that all too much. Also well held in the Northumberland Plate and since left Willie Mullins. Tongue tie on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength87%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.6
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 20/12/2023 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m2f219y Sta 13320/1244 @ Wolverhampton 01/04/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m4f51y Std 1141 @ Chester 08/05/2024 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m4f63y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS8/0511 @ Goodwood 25/05/2024 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 1m3f44y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2024 · OR 83 par1 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2024 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 90 · 1m6f34y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2024 · OR 90 par19/061OR 902 @ Haydock 06/07/2024 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 90 · 1m6f1y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2024 · OR 90 par3 @ Southwell 04/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 1m6f21y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2024 · OR 90 par4/093OR 901 @ Ascot 04/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 93 · 1m6f34y Hvy 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2024 · OR 93 par2 @ Newcastle 28/06/2025 · Pos 20th of 20 · OR 96 · 2m56y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/06/2025 · OR 96 par28/062OR 96projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-06-28Newcastle220th18th+2
2025-03-14Cheltenham1+4
2024-10-04Ascot13rd-1th+3
2024-09-04Southwell31st0th+1
2024-07-06Haydock25th3rd+2
2024-06-19Royal Ascot18th4th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1225/054/0928/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20233rd6/168%83%+0.15
01/04/20241st1/195%100%+0.05
08/05/20246th25/10%0%0.00
25/05/20245th16/116%33%+0.18
19/06/20248th66/10%30%+0.30
06/07/20245th25/10%67%+0.67
04/09/20241st2/189%100%+0.11
04/10/20243rd22/10%50%+0.50
28/06/202520th12/137%0%-0.37