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6

Penzance

6yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 105

Newton Abbot · Edmundson Electrical CableTec Plymouth Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 122y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yet to match his Flat form over hurdles but another creditable effort trying this sort of trip for the first time when third in a handicap at Downpatrick 18 days ago. Has his limitations as a hurdler but likely to give it another good go back in maiden company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength30%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 1m4f Std 137 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 82 par12/054OR 824 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m4f8y Goo 132 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Stratford 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 2m2f148y Goo 15716/0644 @ Stratford 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m2f148y Goo 1584 @ Stratford 12/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 105 · 2m70y GF 158 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 105 par12/074OR 1054 @ Worcester 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 105 · 2m Gd 158 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 105 parBHA105 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 105 · 2m160y Goo 151 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 105 par2/08105OR 105C8 @ Tramore 16/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 103 · 2m140y Goo 166 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 103 parBHA105 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 105 · 2m5f180y Gd 161 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 105 par31/08105OR 105projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA1053rd11th−7
2026-08-16Tramore?4th9th−4
2026-08-02GalwayBHA10511th19th−7
2026-07-22Worcester42nd2nd0
2026-07-12Stratford42nd2nd0
2026-06-30Stratford42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0530/062/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength99%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/05/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20
31/05/20267th20/10%45%+0.45
16/06/20264th20/10%67%+0.67
30/06/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03
12/07/20262nd7/491%75%-0.16
22/07/20262nd11/1094%88%-0.07
02/08/202611th16/116%38%+0.22
16/08/20264th14/126%57%+0.31
31/08/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25