5
Ask Peter
7yo Mare · 11-0 · OR 81
Newton Abbot · Southlands Care Home Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 167y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Taunton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Taunton | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 04/12/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 03/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 12/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |