7
Nala The Lioness
6yo Mare · 11-0
Newton Abbot · Southlands Care Home Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 167y
#5
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength31%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Worcester | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Worcester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Windsor | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Southwell | 6 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/03/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 04/04/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |