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Thickthorn Tom

6yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 117

Newton Abbot · Devondale Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 216y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

95%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 4-time winner this summer who's also won twice over C&D. 85/40, good second of 5 in handicap at Bangor (3m, good) 2 weeks ago. Did nothing wrong in defeat last time, but always a chance finishing effort could get tested if this becomes tactical.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Fontwell 16/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 91 · 2m5f164y GS 166 · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 91 par16/115OR 915 @ Exeter 17/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 85 · 3m54y GS 153 · beat its mark17/03/2026 · OR 85 par5 @ Fontwell 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 2m3f104y Goo 156 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 85 par14/055OR 855 @ Newton Abbot 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 85 · 2m4f216y Goo 161 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 85 par5 @ Market Rasen 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 91 · 2m3f34y Gd 168 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 91 par19/065OR 915 @ Stratford 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 95 · 2m3f98y GF 164 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 95 par5 @ Worcester 16/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 95 · 2m4f Goo 168 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 95 par16/075OR 954 @ Newton Abbot 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 107 · 2m4f216y Goo 165 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 107 par2 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 107 · 3m30y Goo 149 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 107 par4/092OR 107projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee22nd1st+1
2026-08-27Newton Abbot41st2nd−1
2026-07-16Worcester51st3rd−2
2026-07-12Stratford51st3rd−2
2026-06-19Market Rasen52nd4th−2
2026-05-27Newton Abbot51st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1127/0516/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 3100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength91%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 3.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/11/20256th10/147%50%+0.03
17/03/20263rd9/276%80%+0.04
14/05/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06
27/05/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
19/06/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09
12/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
16/07/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
27/08/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
04/09/20262nd85/4089%75%-0.14