5
Flashy Boy
9yo Gelding · 10-9 · OR 81
Newton Abbot · Bayside Signs & Display Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase · 3m 1f 170y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Stratford | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Market Rasen | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2024-10-07 | Stratford | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2024-05-12 | Ludlow | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2023 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 17/06/2023 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 30/09/2023 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 38% | -0.49 |
| 05/11/2023 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 12/05/2024 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 07/10/2024 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |