1
Great D'Ange
10yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 100
Newton Abbot · Bayside Signs & Display Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase · 3m 1f 170y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Stratford | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Hereford | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-05 | Chepstow | 4 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/06/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 20/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 29/09/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |