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Royal Time

7yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 94

Newton Abbot · Bayside Signs & Display Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase · 3m 1f 170y

#6

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Mixed record in Ireland for Shane Crawley but made an encouraging start for this yard when third at Bangor 2 weeks ago after 4 months off. That form has already received a boost so big shout in this weaker race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 8.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA95 @ Limerick 10/04/2025 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 95 · 2m3f60y Goo 163 · below its mark10/04/2025 · OR 95 par10/0495OR 95C8 @ Cork 12/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 94 · 2m1f140y Gd 160 · below its mark12/10/2025 · OR 94 parBHA94 @ Clonmel 06/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 94 · 2m1f50y Sft 162 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 94 par6/1194OR 94BHA94 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 94 · 1m7f169y Yie 162 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 94 parBHA92 @ Down Royal 26/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 92 · 2m4f130y Goo 160 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 92 par26/1292OR 92BHA91 @ Down Royal 20/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 91 · 2m4f145y Yie 159 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 91 parBHA93 @ Thurles 05/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 93 · 2m5f110y Sft 149 · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 93 par5/0393OR 93BHA91 @ Limerick 21/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 91 · 2m6f160y Gd 159 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 91 par4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 94 · 3m30y Gd 152 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 94 par4/094OR 94projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee43rd2nd+1
2026-05-21LimerickBHA914th9th−4
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA92−4
2026-03-05ThurlesBHA937th12th−4
2026-01-20Down RoyalBHA913rd8th−4
2025-12-26Down RoyalBHA925th10th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0420/115/034/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/202512th7/163%31%-0.32
12/10/20253rd10/147%33%-0.14
06/11/202514th40/10%13%+0.13
20/11/202511th33/10%38%+0.38
26/12/20255th15/261%71%+0.11
20/01/20263rd14/126%80%+0.54
05/03/20267th10/147%57%+0.10
21/05/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
04/09/20263rd18/15%67%+0.61