5
Rebel Tribesman
5yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 113
Newton Abbot · Colin Willcocks Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f 122y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
68%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Stratford | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Cartmel | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Warwick | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Sedgefield | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Sedgefield | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-16 | Aintree | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 10/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |