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Service Minimum

6yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 126

Newton Abbot · Colin Willcocks Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f 122y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thriving when completing a mares handicap double with a strong-travelling display at Warwick in April. Beaten by more than 10-lb rise in hat-trick bid at Uttoxeter the following month (plenty ran badly in very hot weather that day). Capable fresh and no surprise if she resumes winning ways.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Worcester 20/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 107 · 2m4f Gd 154 · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 107 par20/084OR 1072 @ Worcester 26/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 113 · 2m4f Gd 157 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 113 par3 @ Cheltenham 24/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 113 · 2m3f200y GS 144 · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 113 par24/103OR 1134 @ Huntingdon 22/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 111 · 2m4f145y Sft 164 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 111 par4 @ Warwick 07/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 109 · 2m Hvy 158 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 109 par7/024OR 1094 @ Market Rasen 17/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 107 · 2m4f139y Sft 156 · below its mark17/02/2026 · OR 107 par5 @ Bangor-on-Dee 31/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 105 · 2m3f123y Gd 168 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 105 par31/035OR 1052 @ Warwick 23/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 116 · 2m5f5y Gd 157 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 116 par2 @ Uttoxeter 24/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 126 · 2m3f207y Gd 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 126 par24/052OR 126projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-24Uttoxeter27th6th+1
2026-04-23Warwick21st0th+1
2026-03-31Bangor-on-Dee51st3rd−2
2026-02-17Market Rasen47th8th−1
2026-02-07Warwick44th5th−1
2026-01-22Huntingdon47th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0822/0131/0324/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/08/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
26/09/20254th17/255%79%+0.23
24/10/202511th20/10%47%+0.47
22/01/20267th18/15%57%+0.52
07/02/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
17/02/20267th18/15%45%+0.40
31/03/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
23/04/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
24/05/20267th3/184%40%-0.44