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6

McGregors Charge

8yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 81

Newton Abbot · Tony McCarthy Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 216y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Perth scorer last summer (for Ella Pickard) who narrowly failed to repeat that feat having slipped to the same mark there (3m) last month, a tongue strap seemingly key to his revival. Below form over C&D 11 days ago though, a mixed round of jumping not helping. Best to look elsewhere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Uttoxeter 16/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 79 · 3m2f13y Gd 149 · beat its mark16/07/2025 · OR 79 par16/075OR 795 @ Perth 16/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 79 · 2m7f180y Gd 148 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 79 par5 @ Stratford 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 85 · 2m6f125y Goo 154 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 85 par6/095OR 855 @ Newton Abbot 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 3m1f170y Goo 159 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 85 par4 @ Taunton 22/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 82 · 2m7f198y Gd 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 82 par22/044OR 825 @ Newton Abbot 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 85 · 3m1f170y Goo 156 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 85 par5 @ Newton Abbot 19/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 82 · 3m1f170y Goo 147 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 82 par19/075OR 825 @ Perth 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 79 · 2m7f180y Gd 147 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 79 par5 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 81 · 2m4f216y Gd 156 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 81 par7/095OR 81projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Newton Abbot54th4th0
2026-08-15Perth52nd2nd0
2026-07-19Newton Abbot54th4th0
2026-07-03Newton Abbot55th5th0
2026-04-22Taunton47th6th+1
2026-04-09Taunton50

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0719/0919/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength10%

Delivery trend -5.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/07/20254th5/174%67%-0.07
16/08/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
06/09/20253rd3/184%75%-0.09
19/09/20252nd11/271%83%+0.12
22/04/20267th9/276%0%-0.76
03/07/20265th10/382%33%-0.49
19/07/20264th15/261%50%-0.11
15/08/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
07/09/20264th3/184%25%-0.59