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3

Mr Mcwhinny

8yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 83

Newton Abbot · Tony McCarthy Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 216y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/11

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

78%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has taken off for his new yard, recording a third win from his last 4 starts in 5-runner event at Sedgefield (19f, good) 4 days ago, cruising clear after taking over between the last 2. Carries a 7-lb penalty but still looking ahead of his mark, he's the one to beat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA82 @ Sligo 13/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 82 · 2m4f Gd 151 · below its mark13/05/2025 · OR 82 par13/0582OR 82BHA80 @ Punchestown 07/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 80 · 2m7f180y Goo 148 · below its mark07/06/2025 · OR 80 par5 @ Cartmel 19/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 86 · 3m1f107y Goo 154 · below its mark19/07/2025 · OR 86 par19/075OR 865 @ Cartmel 21/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 86 · 2m5f34y Sft 159 · below its mark21/07/2025 · OR 86 par5 @ Uttoxeter 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 78 · 3m10y Gd 146 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 78 par13/065OR 785 @ Market Rasen 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 78 · 2m1f43y Gd 146 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 78 par5 @ Worcester 19/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 83 · 2m110y Gd 151 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 83 par19/085OR 835 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 83 · 2m4f216y Gd 158 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 83 par5 @ Sedgefield 14/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 83 · 2m3f65y Goo 152 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 83 par14/095OR 83projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Sedgefield51st1st0
2026-09-07Newton Abbot51st1st0
2026-08-19Worcester54th4th0
2026-07-18Market Rasen51st1st0
2026-06-13Uttoxeter54th4th0
2025-07-21Cartmel57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0521/0719/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength78%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/05/20257th25/10%57%+0.57
07/06/20257th8/158%67%+0.09
19/07/20255th8/158%50%-0.08
21/07/20257th11/142%33%-0.09
13/06/20264th6/492%67%-0.25
18/07/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
19/08/20264th15/890%67%-0.23
07/09/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
14/09/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05