IvyArcIvyArc
1

The Gypsy Davey

8yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 97

Newton Abbot · Tony McCarthy Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 216y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stopped the slide off a plummeting mark when runner-up in a weak race over C&D back in July. Failed to back up that effort despite a 7 lb turnaround with the winner 6 days later and he cannot be relied upon nowadays. First-time cheekpieces replace a visor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Uttoxeter 27/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 115 · 2m4f Gd 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/07/2025 · OR 115 par27/074OR 1153 @ Stratford 18/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 113 · 2m6f125y GF 145 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/08/2025 · OR 113 par4 @ Fontwell 22/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 113 · 2m3f104y Goo 160 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 113 par22/094OR 1133 @ Ludlow 08/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 111 · 2m7f171y GF 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 111 par3 @ Plumpton 20/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 109 · 2m3f166y Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 109 par20/103OR 1094 @ Hereford 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 104 · 3m1f44y Gd 162 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/05/2026 · OR 104 par4 @ Stratford 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 100 · 2m6f7y Goo 153 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 100 par30/064OR 1004 @ Newton Abbot 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 97 · 2m4f216y Goo 160 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 97 par5 @ Newton Abbot 19/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 97 · 2m4f216y Goo 168 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 97 par19/075OR 97projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Newton Abbot54th4th0
2026-07-13Newton Abbot42nd1st+1
2026-06-30Stratford45th4th+1
2026-05-05Hereford44th3rd+1
2026-03-27Fontwell2+3
2025-10-20Plumpton34th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/078/1030/0619/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength47%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/07/20255th9/153%50%-0.03
18/08/20252nd7/282%50%-0.32
22/09/20256th4/179%0%-0.79
08/10/20254th9/276%25%-0.51
20/10/20254th15/261%25%-0.36
05/05/20264th5/174%0%-0.74
30/06/20265th11/142%33%-0.09
13/07/20262nd11/142%67%+0.25
19/07/20264th3/184%57%-0.27