Vengeance
8yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 82
Newton Abbot · Tony McCarthy Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 216y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Exeter | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Exeter | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Wincanton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-04 | Wincanton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Exeter | 4 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2022 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/02/2023 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 26/01/2024 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 24/03/2024 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 04/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 07/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |