Begin The Luck
10yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 99
Newton Abbot · Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Finale Handicap Hurdle · 2m 167y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Plumpton | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Fontwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Plumpton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Leicester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Wincanton | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 19/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 04/02/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 85/40 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |