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7

Raffles Nobu

6yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 89

Newton Abbot · Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Finale Handicap Hurdle · 2m 167y

#8

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong traveller who capitalised on a much-reduced mark/snapped a long losing run at this track (2¾m) in July. Has often flattered to deceive since, for all he wasn't disgraced in the face of a troubled passage when beaten 10 lengths in Stratford selling handicap latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Market Rasen 15/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 95 · 2m125y GS 162 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 95 par15/035OR 955 @ Huntingdon 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 90 · 2m4f145y Goo 153 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 90 par5 @ Worcester 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 88 · 2m Goo 156 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 88 par11/065OR 885 @ Stratford 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 88 · 2m2f148y Goo 151 · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 88 par5 @ Newton Abbot 13/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 85 · 2m2f110y Goo 158 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 85 par13/075OR 855 @ Cartmel 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 85 · 2m1f46y Gd 161 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 85 par5 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 91 · 2m Gd 157 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 91 par23/085OR 915 @ Fontwell 28/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 91 · 2m1f162y Gd 160 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 91 par5 @ Stratford 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 89 · 2m2f148y Goo 142 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 89 par5/095OR 89projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Stratford55th5th0
2026-08-28Fontwell53rd3rd0
2026-08-23Worcester55th5th0
2026-07-20Cartmel53rd3rd0
2026-07-13Newton Abbot51st1st0
2026-06-16Stratford52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0316/0623/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength9%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/20264th9/276%40%-0.36
25/05/20263rd11/271%50%-0.21
11/06/20264th9/153%67%+0.14
16/06/20262nd11/486%67%-0.19
13/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
20/07/20263rd9/488%71%-0.17
23/08/20265th9/276%67%-0.10
28/08/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07
05/09/20265th3/184%33%-0.51