11
Saucats
5yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 80
Newton Abbot · Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Finale Handicap Hurdle · 2m 167y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Stratford | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength58%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |