4
Grandes Suenos
2yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 56
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Fitz Dixon, Jr. Memorial Juvenile Stakes · 6f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength56%
Delivery trend +9.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |