2
Josefina
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 73
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-02-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-12-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2015-04-20 | Mountaineer Park | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2015-03-23 | Mountaineer Park | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2015 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 20/04/2015 | 5th | 15/1 | 21% | 20% | -0.01 |
| 27/12/2024 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 04/02/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 27/02/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |