3
Justifiable Steel
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 98
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-10-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-08-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 27/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |