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Night Nurse

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 87

Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m 70y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 08/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 78 · 1m70y Fas 121 · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 78 par8/09C8OR 78C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 01/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 83 · 1m Fas 120 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 83 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 85 · 1m70y 122 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 85 par20/10C8OR 85C7 @ Presque Isle Downs 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 83 · 1m 123 · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 83 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 23/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 85 · 1m70y Fas 123 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 85 par23/06C5OR 85C7 @ Presque Isle Downs 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 89 · 1m70y Fas 123 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 89 parC7 @ Mountaineer 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 88 · 1m 124 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 88 par30/07C7OR 88C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 91 · 1m70y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 91 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 6f 123 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 83 par9/09C8OR 83projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Presque Isle Downs?1st4th−3
2026-08-17Presque Isle Downs?5th4th+1
2026-07-30Mountaineer?3rd5th−2
2026-07-07Presque Isle Downs?3rd5th−2
2026-06-23Presque Isle Downs?4th4th0
2026-06-02Presque Isle Downs?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/092/0630/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength82%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/09/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
01/10/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
20/10/20253rd13/891%60%-0.31
02/06/20262nd15/890%75%-0.15
23/06/20264th4/179%67%-0.12
07/07/20263rd5/493%60%-0.33
30/07/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26
17/08/20265th33/10%0%0.00
09/09/20261st13/266%100%+0.34