4
Tricky Kitty
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 93
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Penn National | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 45% | -0.26 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 11/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 82% | -0.04 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 78% | -0.15 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/08/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |