4
Greatest Joy
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 75
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Presque Isle Debutante Stakes · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | BHA79 | 6th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -19.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |