9
Finn Mcsorley
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2025 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 10% | -0.66 |
| 01/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |