Halon

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85

Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 2f

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength43%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Presque Isle Downs	?	9th	7th	+2	2.8
2026-08-18	Presque Isle Downs	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-07-27	Presque Isle Downs	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-07-14	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-06-29	Presque Isle Downs	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-06-02	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength16%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/06/2025	1st	2/1	89%	100%	+0.11
08/07/2025	3rd	7/4	91%	60%	-0.31
22/07/2025	6th	4/1	79%	17%	-0.62
02/06/2026	3rd	11/10	94%	60%	-0.34
29/06/2026	2nd	9/4	88%	75%	-0.13
14/07/2026	1st	15/8	90%	100%	+0.10
27/07/2026	4th	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
18/08/2026	5th	6/1	68%	50%	-0.18
07/09/2026	9th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47