IvyArcIvyArc
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Louisianimal

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 93

Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 13/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark13/08/2025 · OR 86 par13/08C8OR 86C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 86 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 10/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 87 · 5f110y 123 · below its mark10/09/2025 · OR 87 par10/09C8OR 87C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 30/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 89 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 89 parC7 @ Presque Isle Downs 21/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 88 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 88 par21/10C7OR 88C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 5f110y 123 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 88 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 88 par22/06C8OR 88C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 07/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 88 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 90 par17/08C8OR 90projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-07-07Presque Isle Downs?8th9th−1
2026-06-22Presque Isle Downs?4th5th−1
2026-05-18Presque Isle Downs?4th5th−1
2025-10-21Presque Isle Downs?5th5th0
2025-09-30Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0830/0922/0617/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/08/20253rd3/184%71%-0.13
03/09/20251st1/499%100%+0.01
10/09/20253rd5/287%60%-0.27
30/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
21/10/20255th7/282%33%-0.48
18/05/20264th10/382%50%-0.32
22/06/20264th13/891%25%-0.66
07/07/20268th10/382%0%-0.82
17/08/20261st7/491%100%+0.09