Small Field
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 78
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-08-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2024 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 26/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 17/06/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |