2
Van
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 95
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 12/08/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 29/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |