IvyArcIvyArc
3

Shadow Factor

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 97

Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Power By Far Stakes · 6f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

22%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 91 · 6f110y 120 · beat its mark22/07/2025 · OR 91 par22/07C5OR 91C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 11/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark11/08/2025 · OR 94 parC5 @ Penn National 29/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 94 par29/08C5OR 94C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 23/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 97 · 1m70y 119 · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 97 parC6 @ Gulfstream 26/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 94 par26/04C6OR 94C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 87 · 6f 123 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 87 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 87 · 6f 125 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 87 par10/06C6OR 87C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 13/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 89 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 95 · 6f110y 123 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 95 par14/08C6OR 95projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-07-13Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-06-10Presque Isle Downs?4th5th−1
2026-05-18Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-04-26Gulfstream?6th7th−1
2025-09-23Presque Isle Downs?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0723/0910/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength82%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/07/20252nd7/491%80%-0.11
11/08/20252nd9/276%80%+0.04
29/08/20252nd6/168%86%+0.17
23/09/20252nd11/1094%80%-0.14
26/04/20266th14/126%29%+0.02
18/05/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
10/06/20264th2/189%25%-0.64
13/07/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
14/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13