5
The Boy's Warrior
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 93
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Power By Far Stakes · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-30 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-03 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-08 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-04-23 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2024 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 21/10/2024 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 29/03/2025 | 1st | 1/10 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 23/04/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 08/05/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |