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8

Twilight Dancer

5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 100

Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Power By Far Stakes · 6f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

33%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 103 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 103 par20/10C6OR 103C7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 13/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 105 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 18/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 104 · 1m39y Fas 119 · beat its mark18/01/2026 · OR 104 par18/01C6OR 104C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 15/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 105 · 7f 118 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 15/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 106 · 7f 118 · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 106 par15/04C6OR 106C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 96 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 96 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 100 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 100 par22/06C6OR 100C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 100 · 1m70y 122 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 100 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 99 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 99 par14/08C6OR 99projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Presque Isle Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-07-29Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-06-22Presque Isle Downs?4th5th−1
2026-06-02Presque Isle Downs?3rd4th−1
2026-04-15Tampa Bay Downs?6th7th−1
2026-02-15Tampa Bay Downs?8th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1015/0222/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength72%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20255th15/890%33%-0.57
13/12/20256th5/174%38%-0.36
18/01/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
15/02/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
15/04/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
02/06/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15
22/06/20264th2/189%50%-0.39
29/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
14/08/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04