4
Braggart Joe
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 89
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-01-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-12-31 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 07/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 31/12/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 25/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |