5
Hit That Review
4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 90
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 26/02/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |