1
Reteko
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
46%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-03-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 24/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 24/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/04/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |