3
Shy Da Runner
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 94
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength1%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |