2
Thorn Of Hearts
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
Delivery trend -8.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 29/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |