8
Vasa
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 95
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-09-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-08-09 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 18/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |