2
Avalon Girl
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 68
Remington Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Remington Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Lone Star | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lone Star | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Lone Star | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Lone Star | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 26/04/2025 | 9th | 8/11 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |