5
Balladry
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 58
Remington Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Remington Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 22/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 15/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 22/06/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 14% | -0.70 |
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 08/03/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 24/04/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |