6
Flat Out Fancy
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 56
Remington Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength75%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-02-24 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-10-31 | Remington Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Remington Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Remington Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength30%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/05/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/06/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/09/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 63% | -0.30 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 24/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |