5
Heiligenstein
2yo Gelding · 9-2
Saint-Cloud · Prix Fast Fox Maiden Stakes · 5f 212y
#13
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength19%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -55.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 57% | +0.02 |