IvyArcIvyArc
5

Bonnie Moon

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 98

Saint-Cloud · Prix A Tempo Stakes · 1m 3f 204y

#1

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 02/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m1f130y Yie 1292/04C81 @ Navan 17/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Dieppe 07/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m3f204y Sft 1287/06C51 @ Naas 25/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 84 · 1m2f84y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2025 · OR 84 par2 @ Haydock 05/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 85 · 1m6f1y Goo 126 · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 85 par5/072OR 851 @ Galway 09/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 83 · 1m4f Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 83 par1 @ Naas 12/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 98 · 1m4f Yie 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 98 par12/101OR 981 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 98 · 2m71y Hvy 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 98 par2/111OR 98projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-11-02Curragh13rd1st+1
2025-10-12Naas14th3rd+1
2025-09-09Galway12nd1st+1
2025-07-05Haydock27th7th0
2025-06-25Naas15th3rd+1
2025-06-07Dieppe?1st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0425/0612/102/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength81%

Delivery trend +6.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/04/20253rd11/142%67%+0.25
17/05/20256th11/142%17%-0.25
07/06/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
25/06/20255th33/10%50%+0.50
05/07/20257th16/116%33%+0.18
09/09/20252nd22/10%93%+0.93
12/10/20254th12/137%80%+0.43
02/11/20253rd9/153%78%+0.25