7
Catherine's Gift
4yo Filly · 9-5
Saint-Cloud · Prix Hervine Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 71% | +0.66 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 87% | +0.26 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 02/07/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 82% | +0.40 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 36% | -0.43 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |