6
Nikita De Lapenche
3yo Filly · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix De Biarritz - Attele · 1m 3f 122y
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Agen | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Toulouse | 3 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 4-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +12.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |