9
Lucifer Du Caieu
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix De Mauvezin - Attele · 1m 6f 146y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength1%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Enghien | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Agen | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-19 | Vincennes | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Vincennes | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Vincennes | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Vincennes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 20/11/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 62% | -0.04 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 18/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 25/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |