11
Luminous Star
5yo Filly · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix De Mauvezin - Attele · 1m 6f 146y
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Agen | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Vincennes | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-09 | Caen | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Vincennes | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Vincennes | 2 | +1 | ||
| 2025-12-20 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 16/08/2025 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 06/09/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 56% | -0.35 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 13/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/03/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 22% | -0.46 |