8
Ilton Du Bray
8yo Gelding · 0-0
Toulouse · Grand Prix Baron D'ardeuil Aoc Buzet - Attele · 1m 6f 146y
#18
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 7
Recent avg: C7.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Laval | 7 | 6th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Enghien | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Vincennes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Pornichet | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Pornichet | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-06 | Laval | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 180% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.41 |
| 13/02/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.23 |
| 30/04/2025 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/07/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 25/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 09/09/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |
| 27/09/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/02/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |