6
Nelson Du Caieu
3yo Gelding · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix Roquepine - Attele · 1m 6f 146y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
56%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 2
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Vichy | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Vichy | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Caen | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -13.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |