3
Jasper Du Bellay
7yo Gelding · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix Minou Du Donjon - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#16
Rank
Odds
55/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Langon-Libourne | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-29 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Toulouse | 7 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Toulouse | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Agen | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 10-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2024 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 19/02/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 11/04/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 31/08/2025 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 46% | +0.04 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 77% | +0.06 |
| 07/02/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 14/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 46% | -0.01 |